8. Other 1% (-3)- It doesn't look like there's anyone left to jump into the race and the 1st primary is now about 3 months away so it would be very hard to get in at this point.
8. Rick Santorum 1% (-1)- Despite everyone imploding around him, Santorum has yet to see any increase in support. His only remaining possibility is to do moderately well in Iowa and hope others drop out so he can grab the right wing mantle.
6. Jon Huntsman 2% (-2)- Huntsman's role in the debates has been reduced to making jokes and being snarky. Now that Mitt Romney is starting to look like an unstoppable frontrunner, Huntsman looks even less likely to make a run. He's also seen his surge in New Hampshire stall.
6. Ron Paul 2% (-1)- With many of his opponents adopting some of his key positions, Paul's chances seem even weaker. It's hard to imagine him winning any primary even though he should make a solid showing in a number of them.
5. Michele Bachmann 4% (0)- Every debate she rolls out a dozen new lies and continues to be upstaged by a weak Rick Perry and a surging Herman Cain. Good for Republicans that they're dismissing her insanity.
4. Newt Gingrich 6% (+2)- Gingrich has done well in debates with his pseudo-intellectual professor routine where he pretends to give straight talk using his superior knowledge of the world. Given how badly people want an anti-Romney candidate, I could see his routine catching on because he's more than happy to make vicious plausible sounding attacks on the president and the base should eat that up.
3. Herman Cain 12% (+4)- Cain is at an interesting stage in the campaign because people don't really believe he can win but he's certainly the flavor of the month and given his positive intensity poll numbers, you never know who the base will ultimately pick to be the final opponent for Mitt Romney. Given Perry and Bachmann's collapse, he may shock everyone and become the standard bearer for the Tea Party. He does have an outlandish "simple" tax plan and outsider status that fit with the base's desires.
2. Rick Perry 18% (-7)- Perry just keeps stumbling but he still has good fundraising totals and remains the last best hope to be the nominee of the right wing. Debates drive the media narrative but it's unclear if they'll drive Iowa and South Carolina results.
1. Mitt Romney 54% (+8)- Romney is on cruise control now. It's hard to imagine Romney winning given how much the base hates him but at this point he's going to win by process of elimination. All of his opponents just aren't ready for primetime.
